We, peasants, farmers, farmworkers, Indigenous Peoples, fisherfolk, pastoralists, herders, rural women, rural youth and children, along with our organizations, coalitions, networks, and allies in civil society organizations, reaffirm the anti-imperialist position and the centrality of the peasant struggle for land, food, and justice in achieving sustainable agriculture and food for all. 

We recognize that the clear onslaught of imperialism in its many forms in the Global South, has caused immense poverty, hunger, has displaced millions of rural poor from their homes and communities, and has impeded their development as nations.  

We register our collective objection and resistance to US-led wars and militarism; its expanding corporate and private capture of the world’s resources such as lands and waters, and; the co-optation of climate-recovery solutions for data-mining, data-management, and appropriating resources for such. 

We oppose the US-backed Israel’s genocidal war against the Palestinians, Lebanese, Syrians, and Yemenis that continues to expand especially in Gaza despite reaching ceasefire agreements. And we decry its pivot to Asia Pacific, priming the region for war against China with ally states by building its military bases, clinching security agreements and military partnerships that embolden “counter-insurgency” programs, and holding big war exercises. 

We reiterate that imperialist expansion and capture of communities and food systems facilitated through technology, greenwashing, and supposed “carbon-offsetting” practices put market interest first before genuine development. The infrastructure needed for these  so-called “sustainable” and “smarter alternatives” displace  peasants and the rural poor from their land, uses up water resources and critical minerals needed by countries to build industries for their own development. These so-called “green-technologies” are not just directly involved in land grabbing and appropriating prime agricultural lands, forests and Indigenous Peoples’ sacred mountains for commercial and private use, they also rob our people of the right to development and the right to self-determination.  

We condemn governments’ sweeping neoliberal programs that convert land from sites of self-sustaining food production to serving corporate agricultural demand for profit that not only disrupt established farming practices but also displace and further marginalize underserved communities. 

We highlight the cases of rural people fleeing their homes and farms due to militarization in the countryside and how this is precisely coordinated with counterinsurgency campaigns by governments to inhibit peoples’ political expressions. Making use of advanced technology including its massive data gathering to surveil those engaged in agricultural-based labor, governments and its favored giant corporations collaborate in militarizing rural areas that help facilitate land grabs for so-called green projects, mining of critical minerals, and the corporate capture of food systems. It is clear that military expansion and agricultural digitalization go hand-in-hand in rationalizing the profit-driven production rather than collective nutrition and national development.

We clarify our position for technological advancements that genuinely uplift peoples’ lives and fairly distribute the fruit of peoples labor rather than prioritize private profit and becoming a subsidiary market for weapons development for war and mass coercion. In this case, war has even come to weaponize hunger itself. The technological developments of the latter kind must be clearly revealed as destructive, exploitative, and severely damaging to both the people and the environment. 

And lastly, we push and call for international solidarity of rural peoples and peasants with progressive pro-farmers organizations in the Global North to build and strengthen a broad resistance to the corporate driven climate crisis which is being packaged today to push for neoliberal reforms at the state level, as well as to the wars and militarism that ravage rural communities in the Global South. 

In this year’s Day of the Landless, we, the undersigned, reaffirm our commitment to arousing, organizing and mobilizing our ranks and the broad peasant masses as a formidable force against imperialism. Only through our collective efforts and action can we achieve just demands for land, food and justice. 

Our calls: 

Peasants rise for land!

Intensify peasant struggle against imperialist plunder, war and militarism!

Assert our rights to our resources!

Reclaim our food systems! 

#DOTL2025

In 2023, according to the State of Food Security and Nutrition, World Report 2024 released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the UN, an estimated 28.9 percent of the global population that is, 2.33 billion people were moderately or severely food insecure. This include 10.7 percent of the population – 864 million people who faced severe levels of food insecurity.

The crippling situation has not been created in just a day – it is the consistent promotion of imperialist neoliberal policies that have pushed for trade liberalization in food and agriculture, not to mention the killer conditionalities coerced by the IMF standby agreements in many parts of the world.

A significant growth, 16.8 percent has been reported in the production of wheat, cotton, and rice crops, and the sector improved its share in gross domestic production; agricultural sector growth of 6.3 percent was the highest in 19 years. The government of Pakistan continues to earn huge foreign exchange reserves, all through the back-breaking labor of peasants, a vast majority of whom include landless farmers, including women. However, it is indeed shameful that poverty rate in Pakistan has increased from 38.6 percent to 39.5 percent over the last five years, with food prices sky high, making basic food items to be beyond the reach of the poverty-stricken masses.

While the peasantry, and the urban poor face hunger and malnutrition, the government guards the interest of traders and investors such that it continues to import wheat grains from abroad, while pushing prices down for local wheat, pushing small and landless farmers in debt and bondage, left to face hunger and misery.

With more than 24 standby agreements with the IMF, the nation’s debt keeps soaring; it has increased by around Rs. 4.64 trillion in the past months. While the people of Pakistan suffer from monstrous policies protecting the imperialist and local elites, the scenario is no different in other part of the world.

The ongoing imperialist wars of aggression in occupied Palestine for the past 12 months has now spread to Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and is fast marching toward Iran. The destruction of agricultural land in the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank knows no bounds; 70% of agricultural land being wasted through direct bombing and toxic chemicals; farmers are killed persecuted and their means of production such as water wells, trees including centuries old olive trees are deliberately destroyed; fisher folk are forbidden access to the seas. All this is part of the genocide happening in Occupied Palestine, and has been part and parcel of the US-led Zionist fascist regime for more than 7 decades.

The unchecked carbon emissions from our colonizers over many centuries has given rise to climate crisis. Globally, and particularly in Pakistan, it is starkly evident that climate change has vastly negative impact on food security especially for rural communities and a variety of climate change impacts such as floods, droughts, and hurricanes.

The solution lies in not putting the country up for sale and taking dictation from international financial institution like IMF, but for building self-reliance in food and agriculture and national industry. It is critical at this juncture that we adopt food sovereignty as the base for our food and agriculture policy; making the voice and decision making of small and landless farmers, especially women in policy development and implementing, making just and equitable land distribution a priority can help the country to break the shackle of debt and pauperization, and also help in establishing a national industry, prosperity and food security.

Release by: Pakistan Kissan Mazdoor Tehreek (PKMT)

The country is going through a period of dismal debt and economic crisis that is further worsened by the climate crisis. Government policies do not necessarily help in alleviating the dire situation. While the government had been expecting a bumper wheat crop, and directives were given for ‘good price’ for the farmers, and ensure availability of the staple crop in the market, the final result can be considered anything but successful. While the crop itself was damaged due to heavy rains in parts of Pakistan, there were bureaucratic delays in setting procurement centers in various points in Sindh, resulting in farmers selling their produce at PKR 3,500/40kg, which was much less than the government procurement price of PKR 4,000/40kg. According to another report, the procurement price set by Sindh government was at PKR 4,600/40kg.

In Punjab, farmers also voiced their dissatisfaction with the support price set by the Punjab government at PKR 3,900/40kg, which was the same as last year. According to news reports, millers and stock buyers were offering PKR 2,800/40kg as compared to the official support price of PKR 3,900/40kg.

Rich farmers’ representatives like the Sindh Abadgar Board (SAB), have rejected the price set by the Sindh government. The economic and debt crisis has led to huge price increase for agriculture inputs including chemical fertilizers, petrol and diesel, and even though with a good bumper crop, farmers suffered losses due to traders’ monopoly. Farmers in Punjab, as well as the Pakistan Business Forum also critiqued the high input prices, while also pointing out the possibility of wheat smuggling by hoarders and smugglers. Sindh Abadgar Itehad (SAI) has also accused the agriculture extension department of corruption having ‘stomached’ PKR 4 billion that had been earmarked for flood impacted farmers in 2022, and has demanded a ‘high-profile inquiry’ for misuse of public funds. Allegations against corporations have been levied for charging over-market prices for fertilizer. These allegations do have credence as an inquiry by the Com­p­­etition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) has revealed that the fertilizer sector secured a whopping subsidy on gas to the tune of Rs152 billion but never passed the benefits on to the consumers.

In addition, the supply of bardana has been curtailed and hence farmers were unable to sell wheat at government set support price. What is to come in future is clear from Balochistan government’s announment that starting from next year, it will not provide bardana to the farmers but support them to buy the bags from the market. Such measures leaves farmers wide open to market shocks, a market that is monopolized by the rich and the powerful.

Before wheat harvest had started, government had allowed the private sector to import about 3.2 million tons of wheat. Unlike the farmers, millers were happy with the government’s policy allowing wheat import by the private sector, as according to them, it has given them freedom from ‘Sindh government’s blackmailing practices.’ Whether, these allegations are true or not, there is no disputing the fact that the bulk of small farmers have suffered hugely through increased agriculture input prices as well as lack of government support in selling their harvest, and falling wheat grain prices in the market; all of these factors have combined in pushing them further into debt and increased hunger, especially landless farmers and the urban poor.

Apart from the wheat fiasco, there is general crisis in the agriculture sector. The agriculture growth target of 3.5 percent set for 2023-24, is in doldrums due to ongoing rains impacting major crops including wheat. Other Rabi crops such as mustard and canola, and gram have also suffered, though sugarcane is expected to benefit. On one hand, there is high input cost, while on the other hand, the commodity prices for major crops such as wheat, cotton and maize have dropped by 25%. The protests by the farming community seem to have been heard, but really to no avail. The final conclusion by political big wigs was that the caretaker government was at fault, as it had allowed for the import of wheat in the first place.

One can point out the fact that it is the elected government that has increased gas prices causing an increase of urea price by around PKR 1,000/bag. This step is going to impact cotton yield, as famers will not be in a position to cultivate the cotton crop to the capacity required. It is being reported that the outlook for the upcoming cotton crop is not very promising due to difficult weather conditions, irrigation water scarcity, and the sky rocketing prices for agricultural inputs. Cotton contributes more than 60 percent to the total national exports, and ultimately this further hike in production cost will result in lower cotton yields impacting industrial production.

An interesting editorial in DAWN points out the fallacy of allowing support provided to farmers on wheat production, as it diverts farmers attention from value added crops to wheat; instead of providing support to farmers on wheat production, there should be complete deregulation of the wheat economy and linking it to the global grain market.

Such policy emphasis of course comes from those who support monopoly capital, and are heedless to escalating food prices which leaves millions suffering from hunger and grinding poverty. Actors pursuing neoliberalism and free market ideology are also not bothered about the millions of small and landless farmers who have played a pivotal role in wheat production, but are unable to buy the grain for their households. It should be noted that raw food exports that continued to expand in March, with a 16.35 percent increase to $685.03 million, up from $588.76m in the same month last year, has led to high food prices for local population.

Might is Right!

For many decades now, there has been unabating pressure from international financial institutions to adopt neoliberal policies for economic growth, including in the agriculture sector. From digital agricultural loans to farmers through organizations like Karandaaz (a non-profit receiving funds from Melinda & Bill Gates, that promotes digitalization of financial services including digitalization of the tax system), to modern agriculture warehousing through Electronic Warehousing Receipt (EWR) financing, all measures that allows agricultural commodities to be traded nationally and internationally. Digital marketing is in essence for the richest segment of farmers in the agriculture economy, and marginalizes the small and landless farmers.

In the same vein, there is continued push for enabling environment for private sector investment in aquaculture value chains for national and international markets. VC Dr. Dr. Iqrar Ahmad, Vice Chair Faisalabad Agriculture University has also urged the private sector to invest in high-efficiency irrigation.

Trade liberalization in agricultural production continues, allowing corporate farming and joint ventures with other countries. According to Saudi Arabia, Saudi agriculture corporations are interested in joint ventures for improving value chains in the agriculture sector, with a lofty vision of Pakistan becoming a ‘bread basket for the kingdom’ as well as for the entire region.

Pakistan and Iran are also bolstering their trade relationship, with annual trade volume to be increased to $10 billion. The relationship has been stagnating under the impact of geopolitics directed by trade sanctions by the US on Iran. While, Pakistan is on a path to increasing trade with Iran, US and Pakistan have renewed a key framework to promote bilateral trade, the Trade and Investment Framework Agreement (TIFA).

It is indeed interesting that though free market economy seems to be the bible for international trade forcefully thrust by US and other G7 economies, but when it comes to trading with Iran, a different beat is heard. Pakistan and Iran’s bilateral trade plans, especially in context to “setting up of joint border markets, economic free zones, and new border openings”, is raising hackles in certain quarters, The US Department of State has been warning Pakistan about trade with Iran, to the extent of sanctions that are designed for putting an end to political and economic relations with Iran. Hence a ‘free market economy’ is not really a free market economy, but hinged on dictates of those in power. No doubt, the idiom ‘might is right,’ is based on such show of political and military strength, often used by imperialist forces.

It is noteworthy that Pak­istan’s merchandise ex­­ports to United States has come down by 10.14 percent to $3.63 billion in the first eight months of the current fiscal year from $4.04 billion over the corresponding period last year. At the same time, Pakistan’s exports to China increased by 42 percent; it has increased to $1.895 billion in July-February FY24 from $1.334 billion over the corresponding period last year.

According to Punjab Livestock Secretary, Masaud Anwar, Pakistan has come to terms with China for exporting dairy products to China through a state-of-the-art farm developed in Sheikhupura.

In short, there is a continued shift in Pakistan’s trade pattern, where it is now trading more and more within the region; whether this trend will continue in the long term is yet to be determined.

At the same time, the role of the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) in attracting investors to Pakistan remains central. Investors from UAE, Saudi Arabia continue to be in dialogue with Ministry for Finance and Revenue. At the same time, there is also invitation to Australia and France for investing in the country.

Climate Imperialism?

There is no doubt that Pakistan is facing diabolical damages based on climate change. Though the government bureaucracy is accepting the fact, and at least making speeches for addressing the issue, the context of putting the blame for this havoc on western industrialized nations carbon emissions seems to be lacking. According to the Sindh Chief Minister Syed Murad Ali Shah, climate change impact was emerging in shape of water scarcity and could be addressed through introducing new cropping patterns that includes low delta crops aimed at reducing water consumption and increasing efficiency in agriculture. Mitigations could also be carried out by introducing agricultural water conservation practices that could also include drip irrigation, sprinkle system, dry farming, conservation tillage and other methods.

Given the extreme dearth of water resources in the country, it is worth pointing out that Coca-Cola, a corporation that faces not only boycott but is also responsible for using up extensive water reserves has invested $22 million in the beverage sector, specifically in technology upgrade, capacity enhancement of its export potential, and employment for over half a million local professionals along its chain.

In the end, the focus is on imported technology, and promotion of the same model of industrial development which is responsible for the catastrophic climate crisis. Our policy makers are blind to the rich source of local and indigenous knowledge embedded in our communities; the fact that the immense wealth generated by the agriculture sector is hinged on the immensely powerful productive force of small and landless farmers is totally ignored.

At the same time, the failure of government bureaucracy is abysmal. For instance, the Sindh Chief Secretary has acknowledged before the Sindh High Court that the timelines for implementation of Supreme Court-appointed water commission could not be met. There were still 769 points from where different departments had been releasing waste into freshwater bodies. Such negligence in context to water sources is criminal lack of accountability seems to be the order of the day.

After decades of pursuing a free-market economy the economic strength of the country, and social condition of the Pakistani population, especially rural communities, the low-income urban masses continues to deteriorate. There is no doubt that the austere economic policies dictated by the international financial organizations are for the benefit of corporations and investors, not for the people. What is the way out is a question which need to be asked and answers sought.

In a press release, the PKMT stated that it strongly opposed the recent move of the Technical Advisory Committee, operating under the Environment Protection Agency (EPA), Islamabad, wherein it had approved and recommended commercialisation of two high-yielding GM varieties of sugar cane; insect-resistant transgenic sugar cane (CABB-IRS) and herbicide-tolerant transgenic sugar cane (CABB-HTS) developed by the University of Agriculture, Faisalabad. It now needs final approval of the NBC.

“The PKMT denounced this attempt. This will further allow the corporate sector to control our food and agricultural production. The approval for GM sugar cane commercialisation will be disastrous for the country, especially for the agriculture sector. It will be the first GM food crop in Pakistan,” officials of the non-profit organisation stated in a press release.

The world, they said, had already witnessed the failure of Bt cotton crop in India; farmers had borne the brunt of the Bt cotton, and the rapidly falling cotton yield in Pakistan was also a testimony to the fact.

“It’s also to be noted that GM crops are banned in several European Union (EU) countries as well as Turkey and many other countries.”

They recalled that in 2019, there was an attempt to introduce maize seed in Pakistani market, but the Ministry of National Food Security & Research distanced itself from the approval of genetically modified maize.

“Now, after the failure of Bt Cotton, and disapproval of GM maize, another attempt is being made, which will only further undermine farmer’s collective rights over seeds and agriculture production. There is no doubt that the corporate sector for the past many years has been lobbying for the commercial use of GM crops.”

“Granting of patent rights to mega-transnational corporations springs from the TRIPs (trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights) agreement of the WTO. The PKMT reiterates its demand for a moratorium on genetically modified seeds and foods in the country and immediate stoppage of GM sugar cane promotion.”

The organisation also referred to the petition filed by various civil society organisations against the Amended Seed Act 2015, and demanded an immediate hearing of the petition pertaining to matters to farmers’ collective rights to seeds.

“It’s well known that sugar cane is used for ethanol production. This move will exacerbate the extremely dire situation of environmental catastrophe, not to mention the increasing pauperisation of small and landless farmers. We strongly urge the National Biosafety Committee to disapprove the two varieties,” the organisation stated.

Published in Dawn, June 17th, 2024

The current fiscal year (FY) has shown a consistent increase in export of raw food products. According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, the food export value has more than doubled to $787.36 million in January, up 105.29 per cent from $383.54m in the same month last year. Food exports grew 57.66 percent in the first seven months of 2023-24 to $4.26 billion from $2.70 billion in the corresponding months of last year.  According to the Trade and Development Authority of Pakistan (TDAP), it is expected that export of Pakistani food items projected to cross $7 billion mark by the end of FY 2023-24, reflecting a sharp contrast of about $4 billion annual exports in this sector previously. And the impact is inevitable as domestic consumer prices for food have been increasing, with food inflation at a stunning 27.4 percent in January. High price of basic food items such as wheat flour, rice, sugar, meat, and vegetables has made their access difficult for the common person. Food inflation since October 2023 has been on average, 29 percent.

It is also worth pointing out that, even though Government of Pakistan claimed a bumper wheat crop, it imported 613,147 tons of wheat in January, up 6.67 percent from 447,560 ton over the corresponding month of last year. Similarly, there has been an increase of sugar imports 26.12 percent January FY24 from corresponding month, last year.

Private sector has been importing wheat with federal government’s approval, to meet domestic demand as the country was facing a massive shortage of over 2.5 million tons. It is being pointed out the influx of imported wheat, even as harvesting approaches, will end up posing challenges for growers in selling their produce at minimum support prices.

At the moment, for this year, the Punjab government is claiming a good wheat production of 25.6 million metric ton (MMT). However, lessons learned from past years, it is hard to believe government claims, as they do not translate into economical access for the working class. It is important to note that Pakistan’s wheat consumption is projected to reach 33 million tons in the next two to three years, which requires urgent planning to meet domestic food security.

After export of food commodities, there is now also interest in exporting livestock and fish items. There has been a ban on export of livestock, but recently the Ministry of Commerce has sought permission for its export to support artificial insemination (AI) in Sri Lanka. According to the ministry, Sri Lanka after research has decreed that the ‘Sahiwal cow is one of the best dairy cattle in India and Pakistan, which has the attributes of heat tolerance, high milk production, and resistance to parasites. Sahiwal bulls are expected to contribute significantly to enhancing the genetic qualities of cows.’Similarly, amendments have been made in the Pakistan Fish Inspection Rules, 1998 that will facilitate the export of fish and fisheries-related products to various foreign markets, including existing and new.

The export policy orientation of the country is clear from the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) approval of proposals for enhancing value added exports, which included permission to import of wheat and export of wheat flour under Export Facilitation Scheme 2021. A Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Pakistan and Gulf countries had been ratified last year, and increasing trade with Saudi Arabia was one way of enhancing exports. According to the Chairman of the Saudi Business Forum, Hassan Al Hazawi, bilateral trade between the two countries has increased by 35 percent.

It is interesting to note that though a ban on export of both metallic and non-metallic minerals including pink salt in raw form has been improved, it does not cover minerals which will be mined and exported under government to government (G2G) pacts being facilitated under the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) framework. Although it was not stated which minerals were being exported under the SIFC, most probably they include the gold and copper mining Reko Diq project in Balochistan.

Minting Agriculture

Agricultural production remains the most lucrative sector in Pakistan, and is a center of focus for furthering its productive and profitability. From the 1960s to the present, genetic resources have been a key area of research and with the formation of the World Trade Organization (WTO), its Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement, a source of earning mega profits, as genetically-engineered seeds are protected as intellectual property of giant monopoly agrochemical corporations. US corporations and academics have been facilitating the use of genetic technology in agriculture. Ostensibly, it is all about increasing crop yield and ‘feeding the hungry.’ Recently, a US Professor Dr Bikram S Gill visiting Pakistan at University of Agriculture Faisalabad, has encouraged young ‘breeders’ to use emerging technologies. He is the founding Director, Wheat Genetics Resource Centre, at the Kansas State University, and researches ancient grains for coming up with modern grain varieties. One has to remember, that first of all these ancient grains have been preserved based on traditional scientific knowledge of many generations of farmers, especially from the global South. Now these ancient varieties’ genetic material is being used by giant agro-chemical corporations to create new varieties that are protected by intellectual property agreements, such as TRIPs. These varieties are heavily dependent on expensive external inputs such as chemical fertilizers, and other forms of technology all to bought from the corporate sector only to further increase national debt.

A new theme emerging in agricultural production is guarding women’s rights. According to Sindh Agriculture University’s vice chancellor, information technologies (ITs) integration in agriculture would not only enhance productivity but also create new opportunities, especially for women in agri-business and related fields. The vice chancellor believes that ITs use in agricultural products’ would increase agricultural exports to global markets and increase the country’s GDP. All of this would lead to development of rural women’s participation in education, IT, agricultural development and domestic industries in Sindh.

A recent study by Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has highlighted the lack of recognition of women farmers in Pakistan. They are generally not considered farmers, unlike males in similar circumstances; farmers are considered to be those who own and till the land. However, women work long hours – 12-18 hours a day, but do not have the means to be independent farmers.

In recent months, there have been news items stressing women agricultural workers’ training. According to a news item, the Sindh Community Foundation (SCF) has signed a Letter of Understanding with Directorate of Literacy and Non-Formal Education, Education and Literacy Department, Government of Sindh to train 3000 women cotton workers in Matiari and Sanghar districts. This venture will result in increasing literacy of women and help them in fighting for fair wages and decent working conditions.

These developments are positive. But one has to wonder what is driving this concern for women’s literacy? On one hand, a literate work force is certainly in a better position to demand for their rights. At the same time, corporations need a literate, trained workforce for a higher quality of work as well as for reading instructions and other functions.

Dream Visions and Road Blocks  

While modern technology is constantly being advocated for increasing agricultural productivity, there are many hurdles that do not seem surmountable. A critical issue remains availability of urea, which seems to be caught in a vicious cycle: urea production is dependent on gas as fuel, and ever-increasing price of gas in the market results in its price hikes (even though subsidy is provided to industry). In addition, urea is also imported but even then, there is an acute shortage and black marketing of urea. This year, the industry is already claiming that urea bags will be available for PKR 1,700. Other chemical fertilizers such as potash and phosphorous are also being provided subsidies for cotton crop production. It should be noted that even though gas prices are astronomical, the federal cabinet has further approved a 67% increase in the natural gas tariff with effect from February 1.

While chemical fertilizers are being subsidized, that are major contributors to carbon emissions, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), is pursuing implementation of Sustainable and Regenerative Management of Rice Production in Pakistan. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) has approved $6.9 million for this intervention. The aim is to restore 15,000 hectares of land and improve farming practices on 50,000 hectares, including protected areas, reducing approximately 460,000 tons of greenhouse gas emissions, benefiting nearly 75,000 individuals, almost 50% of whom are women. It is indeed quite puzzling that how will opposite goals of increasing productivity through chemical-intensive agriculture and reducing carbon emissions will work together.

Another major obstacle with grave consequences is Pakistan facing water scarcity for agriculture production on one hand, and on the other the rapid melting of glaciers as a result of global warming. Given the seriousness of the matter, Pakistan has raised this issue at a UN Security Council meeting, ‘stressing the crucial importance of upholding the Indus Water Treaty.’ Pakistan and India share water resources based on a World Bank brokered agreement in 1960, the Indus Water Treaty. According to a news report, India is seeking greater share of Indus Basin water by modifying the treaty, and it also opposes discussing the issue at international fora. Apparently, that’s why India avoided treaty references at UNSC debate. In the past years, India has built dams on the Chenab River, and Pakistan wants to resolve the conflict through arbitration, as per the treaty recommendation. However, India has been objecting to the Article IX of the treaty, which provides a dispute resolution mechanism. In the meanwhile, according to the Caretaker Provincial Agriculture Minister, Punjab, a program had been initiated to transfer tube wells to solar system in the salt affected areas of Punjab.

Loss and Profit

Pakistan’s industrial sector is reeling under the constant escalation of gas and power tariffs. IMF’s conditionalities know no bounds; the rupee devaluation and then taking away advantages from national industry is whittling its ability to compete on a global scale. Particularly concerned is the textile sector. All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) in the past year, and now once again raised concern against high electricity and gas tariffs and their implications on textile industry. It is being stated that if remedial measures are not taken, over 50 percent of industry will be at high risk of shutting down.

At the same time foreign corporations are not necessarily in the same boat. According to Nestle Pakistan Limited (NPL), its sales have increased by 23.4 percent to PKR 200 billion in 2023 from PKR 162.5 billion in 2022. The profit-after-tax (PAT) has also managed to climb, to PKR 16.5 billion from PKR 15 billion. Similarly, FrieslandCampina Engro Pakistan Limited, a subsidiary of FrieslandCampina Pakistan, has reported a growth in profitability by 35 percent to PKR 482 billion in 2023. The consolidated PAT increased 43 percent, to PKR 66 billion from PKR 46 billion last year. However, due to the remeasurement of thermal energy assets, the consolidated PAT stood at PKR 36 billion.

The Competition Commission of Pakistan (CCP) has approved M/s Fauji Foundation acquisition of Fauji Cereals Business. This increases the sphere of the Fauji Foundation, which had concentrated on production and sale of dairy and allied products previously.

Under the mantel of IMF conditionalities, the caretaker federal cabinet has approved the privatization of the First Women Bank Limited. In addition, a restructuring of Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) was approved based on which a new holding company will be created, a prerequisite for the sale of PIA to the private sector.

In addition, the federal cabinet also approved the deregulation of prices of medicines that were not part of the List of Essential Medicines.

In the wake of debt crises, the panacea offered by international economic and financial organizations is to liberalize trade. In the past year, Sri Lanka like Pakistan has been through a turbulent economic crisis; according to the World Bank, its economy contracted 3.8% last year. In order to improve its economic situation, Sri Lanka has heightened its focus on trade deals. Thailand and Sri Lanka have signed a Free Trade Agreement, where Sri Lanka hopes it will be able to overcome its financial crisis. Like Pakistan, Sri Lanka has also entered a barter trade agreement with Iran, exporting $20 million worth of tea to Iran to partially repay its $251 million oil debts.

While the prescription is trade and more trade, it is important to note that the international trade arena is becoming more and more difficult. At the WTO 13^th Ministerial Conference, its director general Ms Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala noted that the global economy was fragmenting into separate blocs, with wars, tensions and elections having an impact on the trade environment.

It is important to point out that in response to the genocidal attack by Israel on Gaza, Yemen’s Ansarullah have blocked ships going to Israeli ports. According to the IMF, the total transit volume – including not only containers – through the Suez Canal had dropped by 37 percent this year through January 16 compared to same period a year earlier.

The Climate Catastrophe Alms and IMF Conditionalities

It been 18 months since the country went through one of its worst floods in history. The 2022 floods impacted 33 million people, caused over 1,700 casualties, displaced over 8 million people, and pushed a further 9 million into extreme poverty. Recent data through a revised Flood Response Plan reports that food shortages in the recent months has pushed more children toward malnutrition, with over 2.1 million children suffering from Acute Malnutrition Analysis, and need urgent treatment. Many institutions and countries have been providing help which include the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), European Union, Germany and Japan.

Even though the help provided is much needed by affected communities, one has to question the mode of production, especially pursued by the rich industrial countries which are the main culprits with respect to historical as well as present high carbon emissions. These unchecked emissions are the main reason for the raging climate emergency, creating havoc on the poorest of the poor.  It’s quite ironic that the Asian Development Bank has committed more than $10.4 billion for climate finance in 2023 to help developing member countries in Asia and the Pacific region to cut greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the impacts of a warming planet; this money would have been better spent demanding the rich industrial countries to bring about drastic changes in their production and consumption patterns.

On one hand, ‘alms’ are handed out to alleviate the suffering of the victims of climate crisis, and on the other hand, same set of decision-makers impose economically crippling conditionalities which do not allow countries to reach a stable economic environment. Case in point is the fact that Pakistan plans to once again go the IMF seeking a fresh loan package amounting to $6 billion. At the same time, the government has requested the World Bank for an extension of the closing date and restructuring of the “Pakistan Raises Revenue (PRR)” project worth $400 million.

The vicious cycle of borrowing is out of control, as the caretaker government has borrowed almost PKR 4 trillion from various banks. According to analysts, the country is facing a poor economic growth, and is unable to pay of the circular debt of the power sector which has reached PKR 5.7 trillion.

So, on one hand, the government borrows recklessly, while the working class is the one which through its blood and sweat remains the main provider of country’s earnings: the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reports that workers’ remittances have increased by 26.2% year on year in January. In dollar amounts, $2.397 billion were received in January against $1.9 billion in the same month of 2023.

Whether it is remittances or export earnings, these have been created by the country’s working class including migrant workers, as well as the peasanty. It is deplorable that while they are the wealth makers, their own living conditions continues to suffer from inequity and marginalization.

With the start of a new year, the situation in the country sees no real change in terms of economic stability. It is unfortunate that in 75 years, it has gone to the IMF 23 times for financial bailout programs. The State Bank of Pakistan has received the second tranche of $700 million, which is approximately equivalent to SDR 528 million. The last tranche of $1.2 billion under the $3 billion Standby Agreement is expected in March 2024.

Data on Pakistan’s borrowing record is stark testimony to its achievements in being able to pull itself out of debt on a path to self-reliance and economic stability: it ranks 5^th in outstanding debt at $7.4 billion. Other countries before Pakistan are Argentina, Egypt, Ukraine, and Ecuador. According to Pakistan’s Economic Affairs Division (EAD) data, the country seems to be functioning on borrowed money; it has borrowed $5.968 billion from multiple financing sources during the first half (July-December) of the current fiscal year 2023-24 compared to $5.595 billion borrowed during the same period of 2022-23. According to news reports, Pakistan has received $1.2 billion as the first tranche of the $3 billion Stand-By Arrangement (SBA) in July 2023, and $1 billion from the UAE. If these amounts are added to the total financial inflows, a total of $8.168 billion during the first half of the current fiscal year (FY).

In the fiscal year 2023, Pakistan purchased $894 million, accompanied by charges and interest payments totaling $776 million and $325.8 million, respectively. According to the IMF, an IMF loan is disbursed by the borrower’s purchase of foreign currency assets from the IMF with its own currency. Repayment of the loan is achieved by the borrower’s repurchase of its currency from the IMF with foreign currency. In 2022, Pakistan’s purchase from the IMF had been $1.64 billion, which is testimony to its dependence on the IMF. It is noteworthy that the IMF has downward revised real GDP growth to 2% from 2.5% for the ongoing FY.

Panacea or Poison

In order to get out of the debt quagmire, it seems that the government policy making is based on neoliberalism, with emphasis on increasing exports as the lynch pin. The Federal Minister Commerce, Industries & Production as part of the caretaker government, has been paying especial attention to increasing trade relations with various countries, and has even been visiting the MENA region to boost Pakistani trade. In addition, he is hopeful that exports will cross $100 billion in the next five years if the 10,000-acre new industrial zone in Karachi comes to fruition. That this push for exports is having an effect on the trade deficit is certainly there, as it has narrowed by 34.29 percent in the first half (July-December) of the current fiscal year 2023-24. Exports in December have increased by 22.21 percent, from $2.3 billion last year to $2.82 billion for the same corresponding month.

On the whole, there has been increased exports for a number of agricultural goods such as maize, whose exports have tripled, escalating from $85 million to $262 million in a period of one year, and rice whose exports in the same period from last year have gone up from $282.53 million to $367.39 million. Similarly, textile and clothing sector exports have gone up to $1.39 billion, up from $1.35bn in the same month the previous year, and has shown an expansion of 3.3 percent. The export of raw food products have increased massively up to 111.63% in December 2023, and overall, agriculture and food exports jumped by 64% during first half of current fiscal year; the increase was from $2.345 billion to $3.847 billion in same period last year. It needs to be highlighted that our major export markets are the European Union, USA and China. Given the intense political tug of war between the western imperialist countries and China, with Pakistan caught in between, it does not border well for Pakistan. It is important to note that Pakistan is adopting trade settlements in Chinese RMB rather than US dollars. There has been an increase of nearly 600 percent in trade settlements using the Chinese currency. This will decrease the country’s dependency on US dollars but of course what will it mean in terms of Pakistan’s debt obligations to China have to be further studied.

From the perspective of food security, the upsurge in exports for rice, (especially basmati), meat and fruits has other ramifications as well. High food prices mean hardship and hunger for the people at home, especially the very farmers who are responsible for rearing the livestock, fruit and vegetables. In the end, though huge loans taken by governments run by elite of the country, the cost is born by the working masses. There has been high inflation in the country, going up to 29.7 percent in the last months. According to reports, various consumer companies saw their unit sales falling and declining purchasing power of the people. They have been blamed on soaring prices of basic kitchen items, as well as electricity rates. The economic situation of the common man is well understood by suicide cases being reported which include murder of family members as well based on inability to meet family needs. Such shocking cases portray the suicidal rise in basic items. This is even more tragic, given that global food prices came down in 2023. According to the FAO, its Food Price Index (FFPI) fell by 10% below its December 2022 level.

Apart from promoting exports, foreign direct investment (FDI) is also being promoted in the country. Only in November, 2023, FDI increased by 12 percent, growing from previous year’s $117 million to $131.4 million in the same time frame. SBP data for the first half of the current fiscal year shows that a net FDI of $862.6 million was received and is a 35% increase. Foreign investment is based on the primary self-interest of the investors and does not necessarily take into consideration the needs of the local communities, or country’s welfare. The aid agencies as well as commercial groups of various countries including China, UAE, USA are interested in investment in agriculture, including fruits, mines and minerals. This trend is quite apparent. The Caretaker Federal Minister for Privatization has concluded the privatization of the Heavy Electrical Complex (HEC) with the purchasing party IMS Engineering. The Asian Development Bank has stated that it would promote enhancement of the role of the private sector in its so-called climate resilient housing ecosystems. No doubt that these investments will promote neoliberalism, hinged on privatization that would increase the role of transnational corporations responsible for human rights abuses and environmental degradation.

Produce and Export, No Matter the Cost

Agriculture production is bulwark of export. And the means for increasing production seems to lie only on external inputs and technologies. The Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet has given permission importing 200,000 metric tons of urea as a buffer stock, which is being brought in from Azerbaijan. There were special instructions given against hoarding and ensuring farmers’ easy access to the input. Apart from urea, agriculture sector machinery and equipment were also imported, showing an increase of 60.76 percent.

Of course, multinational corporations such as Nestle have been promoting modern technologies, and for ‘educating’ farmers. It is quite ironical that the farming sector, which is the biggest export sector, responsible for most of the foreign exchange earnings, is always being considered the most backward.

In the same vein, another Spanish clothing multinational, Industria de Diseño Textil (Inditex) is also interested in working with farmers in Pakistan. According to D&B Hoovers, Inditex is one of the world’s largest fashion retailers, globally having 6,475 shops under seven different banners, including Zara, Bershka, and Zara Home. It is owned by a Spanish billionaire. One wonders, why such a corporation, which has faced intense criticism for its ‘fashion sense’ making fun of ongoing massacres in occupied Palestine? Further, can giant multinational corporations who are responsible for intense exploitation of workers and environment deliver justice and equity?

In any case, Inditex has provided funding to the International Labor Organization (ILO) for carrying out the second phase of a program, Fundamental Principles and Rights at Work (FPRW) in the cotton sector. The objective of the workshop is to promote rights of cotton workers, and capacity building of cotton-growing communities to advocate for their rights and address gender inequalities in the sector. The ILO and Inditex entered into a partnership in 2017 to promote an integrated approach to FPRW in the cotton supply chain in China, India, Mali and Pakistan.

Another news item provides information on the caretaker Sindh government and M/s Green Corporate Initiative (Private) Limited entering an agreement to provide over 52,000 acres of land in six districts for corporate farming. This initiative falls under the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC). The M/s Green Corporate Initiative (Private) Limited which is under the umbrella of the Pakistan Army is supposed to carry out corporate farming using barren land in all provinces of Pakistan. It should be noticed that in November 2023, the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) had approved provision of PKR 20 billion through the Federal Government to the Defence Division, Ministry of Defence. According to the news, based on the successful pilot corporate agriculture farming project in Punjab, a government-to-government (G2G) Joint Venture Agreement was signed at Chief Minister House between the Sindh government and M/s Green Corporate Initiative (Private) Limited. The amount of land and districts included in providing barren land include 28,000 acres in Khairpur, 10,000 acres in Tharparkar, 9,305 acres in Dadu, 1,000 acres in Thatta, 3,408 acres in Sujawal and 1,000 acres in Badin. The agreement is based on 20 years to carry out the so-called Green Pakistan Initiative.

It should be pointed out that while thousands of acres of land is being handed over for corporate farming in Sindh, the province is facing persisting water shortage that could lead to a drought. In addition, climate change impacts including calamities as well as rising sea level has been eating up land and/or it has been destroyed by salinity. The year 2023 has been marked as the hottest year in world records. In Pakistan, the climate crisis has had a major impact on the cotton crop, which has been suffering a decline for a number of years, and even this year the production did not reach the set target. In the mountains, there has been a dry spell and lack of snowfall which means lesser amount of water in the rivers. This will impact fish species that breed in the downstream ecosystem. The impact of climate crisis, now having been upgraded to climate emergency is a global phenomenon. Across the world, countries are suffering from drought, forest fires, decreased ground water and other impacts. For experts on the subject, the answers lie in attracting foreign direct investment in the fisheries sector. Colonial dominance has allowed dependence on foreign expertise rather than trying to tap into indigenous knowledge systems and finding answers from the communities’ wisdom gained over centuries. It is worth pointing out that while so much emphasis is being put on trade and foreign trade, the world is going through an intense political upheaval, with wars and militarization disrupting trade routes. The genocidal aggression by Apartheid Israel against Gaza, suggests of a looming famine in the Strip, with its entire population of 2.2 million already facing crisis levels of food insecurity.

Is this the time for relying more on trade or is it time to assess our internal strengths, capabilities and promote self-reliance leading to a resilient national economy? A recalibration is also needed as according to the World Bank’s analysis Pakistan’s the economic performance does not seem so rosy, with growth projected at only 1.7 percent. This scenario is also predicted globally, where third year in a row, economic growth is predicted to remain slow, prolonging poverty and debilitating debt levels in many developing countries.

The discrimination against small and landless farmers is quite blatant. In Kohat district, the agriculture department has introduced drones for pesticide spraying. From a health perspective, no doubt its beneficial for the farmers to spared pesticide spraying. But a remark from a senior member of the agriculture department that such technology is more time efficient, as well as spares the cost of hiring labor is objectionable. Livelihood, and for that decent livelihood is the responsibility of the state and such remarks show a stark lack of concern for the livelihood of agriculture workers.

Small farmers have great difficulty in accessing these chemical fertilizers due to black marketing, and due to land being intoxicated to these chemicals, it is difficult to get a good harvest without their use. It should be noticed that in the current FY budget, PKR 30 billion have been allocated for fertilizer subsidy. However, the subsidy is provided as gas subsidy to fertilizer plants, and then fertilizer has to be sold at a subsidized rate. As is seen every year, in the end chemical fertilizers are in short supply and hoarded to be sold at much higher rates than set by the government and/or or smuggled out of the country. In summary, profits are minted by various interest groups except small farmers.

At the same time, the government officials protect the big landlords by not levying taxes on their income and agricultural land. According to a tax expert, Dr Ikramul Haq, the remedy is to let the federal government collect the taxation on agricultural income, while transferring to the provincial governments collection of sales tax on goods. According to him, the current situation allows concentration of resources and powers in the hands of privileged classes who support corrupt government officials as they safeguard interests of these elite segments of society. There has been a constant resistance from the federal government and provincial authorities to impose income tax on agricultural income of rich landlords based on their political clout. In the FY22-23, agricultural income tax accumulatively from all of the provincial governments was PKR 2.4 billion. Reportedly, its national potential could be up to PKR 800 billion, if the agricultural income tax was imposed in accordance with the Constitution.

National Assets: Our Children

There is a price to the above policies. And it is being paid by children. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s first provincial Child Labor Survey 2022-23 has shown that 11%, about 745,165 children are employed as child labor. The situation would be more or less the same in the other provinces. With accelerating economic deterioration in the economic stability of the country, children are forced to share in financial provision for their families. Another issue that revolves around children’s health is the increasing occurrence of Type 1 diabetes in children in Pakistan. Around 100,000 are estimated to be suffering. The cause of Type 1 diabetes in children is considered to be the presence of high fatty and processed food. It is considered to be more prevalent in urban rather than rural centers and is also due to lack of healthy environment providing children the awareness and space for physical activity. The context of development is based on many parameters defined in the Sustainable Development Goals of the UN. It is quite evident that children are being neglected in the country based on glamorizing values pertaining to profit-seeking Capitalist society especially targeting children.

There has to be a more wholistic view of development rather than just seeking foreign exchange and chasing our tails to get rid of the mountainous debt.

With the formation of Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), there has been heavy emphasis on promoting agro-chemical agriculture, with Green Revolution technologies considered markers for progress. The role of the Pakistan Army in SIFC remains dominant. In context to the project ‘Green Initiatives,’ the Pakistan Army Chief of Staff (COAS) has identified plans for ‘agriculture malls,’ that would supply various facilities to farmers. He has been quoted, to have said that “provision of easy agricultural credit, cold storage chain, climate change resistant seeds and genetically engineered livestock will be ensured”.  These development in the agriculture sector are alarming, as the economic and political positions of ‘famers’ in the country is divided into those who are on one hand big feudal lords, and rich farmers, while the bulk of those who till the land, are small farmers and agriculture workers.

This is in essence the crux of the matter. Agriculture sector, though it remains the major employer in the country has declining productivity. Climate change is often held responsible for the poor performance. However, political factors are not given the weightage that they deserve. On one hand there is vast inequity in land distribution, and on the other modern technologies and private sector are considered a panacea to all ailments. The long-term harm caused by Green Revolution policies are totally ignored. Agriculture university academics are lamenting soil infertility, with more than 6.3 million hectares of land having been destroyed by salinity. While soil nutrients are decreasing, we have the defense forces claiming they want to bring back the glory of development through Green Revolution technologies, which are globally accepted to have been the key catalyst to environmental degradation, loss of biodiversity, and a severe impact on human health. Even under acute national debt of $128 billion, instead of planning policies that would decrease the debt and increase local reliance in agriculture production, a new Green Revolution package worth PKR 2 billion has been introduced.

Apart from the crippling harm to biodiversity, especially loss of local and indigenous seeds, and pesticide poisoning, there is also now overwhelming dependency on profit-seeking agro-chemical corporations. Apart from these issues are also, bureaucratic procedures, poor policy planning and implementation, black marketing of agricultural inputs, soaring unbridled cost of production are all factors that do not take into account ground realities of small farmers. An example is that while ‘experts’ emphasize insurance and small loans for small farmers, according to a report from the Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan (SECP) has provided data that of the total population of farmers of 8.2 million, only 9.5 percent of the farmers were insured against the disaster risk insurance and small loans. At the same time, at peak sowing seasons, there has been continued shortage of chemical fertilizers, a situation that has been prevailing for many years. This year, government officials had assured urea imports of 200,000 tonnes; however, all provinces have reported once again, acute shortage of the chemical fertilizer. Farmers have been protesting against the black-marketing of urea fertiliser by dealers. The ultimate result is that a majority of the peasantry is pushed deeper into debt and poverty. Apart from the scenario at home, the use of agro-chemicals for agricultural production is being questioned, globally. At the COP28 UN climate summit in Dubai, there were calls for complete phasing out of chemical fertilizers based on their heavy reliance on fossil fuels.

For the policy makers in the country, the way out from the high national debt ultimately relies on increasing exports. In the past month, two export advisory committees were established, one for exports of the textile sector, and the other for the non-textile sector. They are expected to formulate policy guidelines that are to be shared with SIFC. Based on these developments, the Export Advisory Council (EAC) held its inaugural meeting under the chairmanship of Caretaker Minister for Commerce, Dr. Gohar Ejaz, charting the course for Pakistan’s $100 Billion Export Vision, where a $50 billion elevation of exports in the next five years was considered. While there are discussions of increasing textile exports underway, Punjab, the biggest cotton producing province was not able to reach even 50% of its cotton production. It’s worth pointing out that the textile industry has been reeling from the impact of highest ever energy cost, a direct result of the conditionalities of the IMF. It is also important to point out that adverse weather conditions have not been kind to cotton production, globally.

Trade – the merry go round

Exports are tied to trade relations with other countries, and Iran and China are key trade partners. There has been further developments in Pakistan-China trade relations. China has agreed to revise the Free Trade Agreement. Private sector parties of Pakistan and China have signed several memoranda of understandings (MoUs) with a $10 billion investment in four major export-oriented sectors. Joint ventures (JVs) planned include establishing industries in key sectors including textiles, agriculture, food, and car spare parts manufacturing.

Additionally, a protocol has been signed to export halal meat to China. In the coming weeks, Pakistan will commence shipments of boiled meat to China. Mr Gohar revealed that a protocol has been signed with a Chinese investor to cultivate peanuts across 10,000 acres of the Cholistan desert. The peanuts will be exclusively grown for export purpose. In addition, China is willing to put forth new investments in automobile, mineral, and agricultural sectors, with joint venture in the textile sector, with Chinese technology to be used in special economic zones. The Chinese government has also agreed to consider the option of providing trade finance in Yuan. Trade with Iran has also shown further developments with respect to barter trade.

Among exports are also fodder exports to Kuwait, based on cultivation of high protein fodder ‘alfalfa.’ The caretaker CM Punjab, is emphasizing the scientific drying and preservation of this nutrient-rich feed. There are also plans to provide alfalfa seeds to farmers for cultivating the fodder. Other key players, such as FPCCI members have highlighted the importance of increasing rice exports, while hoping to meet an annual rice export target of $3 billion by the end of the fiscal year (FY) 2024.

Further, according to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, food exports have increased year-on-year by 37.12 percent during the first five months of the current fiscal year, recorded at $2.64 billion during July-November 2023-24 as compared to $1.92 billion in the same period last year. The rice exports surged by 49.37 percent to $1.11 billion from $749.4 million, last year. Likewise, the exports of fruits rose year-on-year 15.27 percent to $128.13 million, leguminous vegetables 79.01 percent to $0.084 million and spices 19.21 percent to $45.179 million.

While there is an increase in food exports, the situation of food security in the country is not so rosy. UNICEF is looking for $135.6 million from the donor community for 2024 to meet the critical humanitarian needs of more than 5.5 million Pakistanis, including 3.4 million children. These fund requests for 2024 are for the protracted and ongoing nutrition emergency following the 2022 floods, and for Afghan refugees residing in Pakistan. According to UNICEF, funds requested will be used to help 1.3 million people gain access to safe water and sanitation, provide essential health and nutrition services for 5 million people, among other uses. The state of hunger and malnutrition cannot be separated from high food inflation in the country. In November 2023, it stood at 29.8 percent in urban and 29.2 percent in rural areas, whereas non-food inflation was 30.9 percent in urban and 25.9 percent in rural areas. The rise in food prices, particularly wheat have been met with popular protest. In Gilgit-Baltistan, a shutter-down strike was observed as the increase in the rate of subsidised wheat, has significantly increased over the past six months — first from PKR 7.5 to PKR 20 per kg in June, and then recently to PKR 52 per kilogram

The Lynch Pin – Foreign Direct Investment

Another area of concern for policy makers is the decrease in remittances, which has been a key sector for earning foreign exchange. The World Bank has projected a drop in remittance flows to Pakistan to $24 billion in 2023 and further drop below $22 billion with 10 percent decline in 2024.

While Pakistan is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate crisis, more than 50 percent of foreign direct investment (FDI) has been in the power sector of Pakistan, mostly for coal power projects.  Most of the coal power projects are being funded by China. According to the government of Pakistan, the Thar coal reserves are worth $25 trillion, much needed to pay back foreign loans.

Policy making seems to have an internal conflict. Increasing exports is the highest priority, and given the billions in dollars in debt, it is understandable. However, the very policies that are enacted for increasing exports, end up increasing the debt burden instead of reducing it, as it is heavily reliant on further loans, and opening the country to foreign investments; investments which keep the investors profits at heart, and is not concerned with other social, political and/or economic consequences that may arise for Pakistan. Projects like the Green Initiative, are being critiqued as ‘poison for the country,’ where millions of acres of land are being offered for corporate farming.

The debilitating climate disasters in the country are based on the global character of climate crisis. This is further exacerbated when agrochemical technologies are introduced, and at the same time increasing food and agriculture exports to foreign markets. The impact of climate disasters are suffered by the population, mostly those segments who are the most marginalized.  It needs to be pointed out that the impact of these disasters are long term. After the 2022 floods, to date, 1.3 million people remain temporarily displaced in Sindh, Balochistan, and KP, with 900,000 concentrated in five hardest-hit districts of Sindh, posing risks due to preexisting vulnerabilities. According to the World Malaria Report 2023, as a result of the 2022 floods, Pakistan is facing a five-fold surge in Malaria, with reported cases escalating from 500,000 in 2021 to 2.6 million in 2022; this was based on stagnant water providing an optimal breeding environment for mosquitoes. In addition, over 150,000 cases of watery diarrhea are being reported every week across Pakistan as children are facing micronutrient deficiencies. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), other reasons for the spread of the disease were displacement, healthcare system breakdown due to the crisis, increased levels of food insecurity and malnutrition. Further, according to the World Bank, Pakistan’s GDP is expected to decrease by a minimum of 18 to 20 percent by 2050 due to severe climate-related occurrences, environmental deterioration, and air contamination; all of these factors are directly related to capitalist, modern technologies dependent on fossil fuel production. The situation globally is also alarming, as there is further increase in global warming. According to scientists, based on available data, ‘ice cores, tree rings and the like suggests this year could be the warmest in more than 100,000 years.’

And then, as part of the panacea, further loans are provided for mitigating the impacts. For instance, the Asian Development Bank has already approved a $80 million concessional loan as part of its $1.5 billion pledge of support for Pakistan’s recovery from the 2022 floods.

One also needs to examine the ethical character of lending institutions. It is in this vein, an organization, the Fair Finance Pakistan carried out a policy ranking of leading commercial banks, based on which it was reported that these banks had low policy commitments in the following areas: climate change, human rights, gender equality and labour rights. On a scale of zero to 10, with zero being the least desirable policies, the five banks scored an average of 0.5 for addressing climate change. These banks have not publicly disclosed any climate policies alig­ned with the Paris Agreement. All five banks scored an average of 0.72/10 in human rights policy ratings. None of the banks disclosed human rights policies related to their investment or financing, which is “not aligned” with the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights. In a similar vein, in Amsterdam, Netherlands, Extinction Rebellion, a climate activist group blocked a major highway demanding an immediate end to the financing of fossil fuel projects by the country’s largest bank, ING. According to Extinction Rebellion, ING was the main financer of fossil fuel projects in the Netherlands.

The hypocritical face of corporations can be clearly seen by the fact that in Pakistan, a program, “Recharge Pakistan’, a seven-year, $77.8 million activity to use nature to help adapt to climate change, has as one of its funders The Coca Cola foundation, which is providing $5 million. It is no hidden secret that Coca Cola company is one of the worst corporations in the world that is not only creating plastic pollution, but offers a high sugar-based soft drink that has no nutritional value, rather just the opposite. In addition, it is part of corporations that are known for funding the apartheid Israel, carrying out genocide in the occupied Palestine. The brutal aggression carried out by Zionist forces in Gaza have led to wide scale protests by hundreds of healthcare professionals, paramedics and students. In face of such brutality, it is quite atrocious that corporations like Coca Cola are being allowed to provide funds for climate crisis or any other issue, when they themselves are active players in the ongoing ecocide, globally.

Grotesque Imperialism

The Israeli assault in Gaza has many consequences for economic development as well as social and political freedom across the world. There are millions of people protesting against the genocide and intense destruction of Gaza. With Yemen blocking the Red Sea, it has already impacted global trade with world’s largest shipping corporations having re-routed their ships and imposed extra charges. Similarly, the attack on democracy and human rights in occupied Palestine, has been beyond what has been seen in recent years. Since October 7, in Gaza more than 20,000 people, mostly women and children have been killed, while the health system has been destroyed through Zionist aerial bombardment. According to the UN World Food Programme, half of the 2.3 million Gazan population is starving. The Palestinian foreign minister has stated that Israel is using food as a weapon of war, as the occupation forces have cut off food, medicine and fuel forcing starvation on the people. The year 2023 can only be remembered as the starting of the demise of the legitimacy of the western countries that have been holding the world accountable for human rights, women’s rights, freedom of expression and peaceful demonstration, among other pillars for democracy. The economic crisis, the environmental and climate crisis are all set for becoming worse. It is the time for uniting for raising our voices for genuine democracy and just and lasting peace.

According to the Federal Minister for National Food Security and Research Dr Kauser Malik, Sino-Pak agricultural ties and joint efforts will help address the issue of food security and to learn from each other’s experiences. Similarly, the Alternative Livelihoods Options project, a five-year project worth $1.3 million  finished recently; it was meant to teach women improved agricultural practices and increasing their access to new, alternative crops. According to the US Ambassador Donald A Blome, who participated in a closing event of the project, “the achievements (of the project) are far-reaching,” and has “helped establish fruit orchards, vegetable gardens, greenhouses, and irrigation systems benefitting more than 25,000 people.” In addition, USAID’s Economic Recovery and Development Activity (ERDA) is collaborating with the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Agriculture Research and local farmers, in pioneering an innovative approach to certified wheat seed production in District Mardan.

Through the many decades that Pakistan has received back-breaking loans and other grants to help us ‘develop,’ the outcome has been disappointing. In the 21^st Century, when we are confronting climate crisis, global warming is a vicious reality destroying millions of acres of land and livelihood: can countries like the US and China, who have a history of chemical intensive, ecologically suicidal agricultural systems teach Pakistani farmers how to practice agriculture production?

The Food Ministry has announced that no seeds, including genetically modified organisms (GMOs), would be permitted into the country without complying with the prescribed Plant Quarantine Regulations and Seed Regulations. But such a compelling directive is actually misleading. The government is requesting a technical and commercial research report for potential import of GMO seeds for oil extraction and meal production. There is no dialogue nationally on a controversial issue as GMOs, especially with farming communities, while the emphasis is to study global standard operating procedures and sanitary and phytosanitary protocols for GMO soybean seed importation. Apart from the corporate driven Sanitary and Phytosanitary Mechanisms and Technical Barriers to Trade agreements of the World Trade Organization (WTO), on the question of seeds, one must always remember that Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement of the WTO. TRIPs and other WTO agreements have strangled agriculture economy of third world countries because, based on these agreements,  mega-corporations of rich industrial countries have been able to capture local production and markets in food and agriculture. Global standards are for mega corporations of the rich industrial countries, and is the absolute opposite of the concept of food sovereignty.

One good news, at least on the surface, is that the Sindh livestock department and the Sindh Agriculture University (SAU) Tando Jam have signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for preservation of indigenous cattle breeds such as Sindhi Kundhi buffalo, Sindhi red cow and other breeds.

In the end, our focus on development is based on having faith not in the peasant class, which is directly responsible for much of the wealth generated through agriculture production as can be seen from financial gain of PKR 400 billion with the increase of 4 million tons of wheat production in 2022-23. Additionally, $3 billion has been earned from the export of basmati and coarse rice this year. The Pakistan Business Forum (PBF) has stated that said Pakistan’s exports in rice, and sesame seed increased by 13.5 percent, while the trade deficit decreased by 4.5 percent during the same period.

But the contribution of the small and landless farmers to the economy is ignored, while, there is no end to recommendations on collaboration with government research institutions, the private sector among others.  For instance, the Sindh Agricultural University Vice Chancellor, Dr Fateh Marri has pointed out that over 3.5 million tons of valuable banana waste was burnt every year although it could be used to produce by-products, including fiber, composite fertilizers, confectionery and cosmetics. His suggestion is to form a banana research group comprising public, private and industrial sectors along with research institutes and growers, and hoped that this group could become part of World Banana Forum. The word ‘growers’ invariably means rich farmers, and not the peasantry itself.

At the same time, agriculturists, economists, progressive farmers and researchers have lamented the situation where agriculture sector in Sindh is hostage to commission agents, who, instead of farmers, fix prices of farm products. In Punjab, farmers have been raising complaints on the non-availability of fertilizers, and pointing to overcharging of the commodity by dealers. Urea was being sold at PKR 4,200-4,500 per bag against the government-prescribed price of PKR 3,600 per bag, while DAP prices were around PKR 13,500 per bag, with many police reports being filed against dealers for black marketing.

The Punjab government had fixed wheat sowing target for 2023-24 at 16 million acres to achieve a target of 25.6 million tons, but given shortfall and black marketing of inputs will this be possible? Even if it is possible, given shortage of oil and gas fuel as a critical input for their production, where does it leave us in the long run? The government is reportedly engaged with Russia, China and Azerbaijan for purchase of 0.2 million tons of urea fertilizer for the Rabi season. Is it feasible, given our huge debt, that we continue to rely on chemical fertilizers that are on one hand are expensive and detrimental to climate and soil fertility, and on the other, based on dependency of external sources?

It also needs to be emphasized that infrastructure development is often not finished in time; the caretaker government has indicated that work on the construction of Daducha Dam with an escalated cost of Rs10 billion has been resumed, while three key water sector projects face funding shortfall.

In general, there has been an increase in exports in the country. According to the Pakistan Statistical Bureau (PSB), higher shipments to China, and exports to nine regional countries resulted in a year-on-year growth of 14.3 percent in the first four months of the current fiscal year. Pakistan’s merchandise exports increased for the second month in a row after a year-long downward trend, data released by PBS. In absolute terms, the exports were recorded at $2.70 billion in October against $2.38 billion over the corresponding month of last year (20222), amounting to a growth of 13.55 percent. The textile and clothing exports recovered, with a recorded growth of 5.92 percent, with exports rising to $1.44 billion, up from $1.35billion in the same month last year.

Similarly, raw food products saw an export surge of almost 60 percent in October. Apart from basmati rice, meat exports were worth $152.58 million in the 4MFY24 in comparison to $128.46 million over last year, achieving a growth of 18.77 percent. Increase in meat exports is based on reaching new markets that include Jordan, Egypt, and Uzbekistan.

From February to August, sugar export figures reached 248,854 tons against no exports recorded over the comparable period of last year. Fruit exports, in the first four months of the FY24 increased 13.53 percent to $108.99 million against $96.003 million over last year. All other food exports increased by13.88 percent to $404.52 million in the first four months of the FY24 from $355.22 million in comparison to the corresponding months of last year. In the same period, only fish and fish product exports worth $123.86 million saw a decline of 7.96 percent from a year ago of $134.57 million.

Fish and fish exports have declined. However, Pakistan has successfully secured a two-year extension (December 2025) to continue the commercial export of fish and fish products to the United States. This decision by the US administration exempts Pakistan from adhering to the standards outlined in the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) of 2016, to offer additional time for aligning fishing practices with US environmental standards.

The result of increased food exports resulted in higher prices for consumers at home. It has been reported that ‘unchecked exports’ resulted in a high food inflation of 29 percent in October, 2023, making access to essential food items such as wheat flour, rice, sugar, meat and vegetables difficult.

Contesting news reports point to, at the least, lack of coherency in food and agricultural directives. There have been unprecedented high sugar prices at PRK 200/kg that resulted in the ECC imposing an export ban from August 10, 2023.A relevant point regarding sugar production is though profits accumulated by the sugar industry, there is big gap in fair prices for sugarcane. The caretaker Chief Minister of Sindh, fixed the minimum price of sugar cane at PKR 425 per 40 kg, whereas Punjab has fixed it at PKR 400 for the same quantity. However, in Punjab, farmers have rejected the sugarcane support price demanding that it should be raised to PKR 500 per 40 kg, at least. Various farmers’ platforms have been contesting the price, as well as highlighting the bias in favor of the industry and not farmers.

Similar tussle is apparent with respect to government policy and industry. The Pakistan Flour Mills Association has rejected the wheat issue price of PKR 4,700 per 40kg announced by the food authorities. The Association pointed out that adding PKR 800 per 40kg as incidental charges to the cost of grain procured by the government at PKR 3,900 per 40kg from the farmers was not fair.

The question of food security is also quite muddled. The National Food Security Ministry has announced that the country has well-stocked wheat reserves, as federal and provincial food departments have total stock of 6.934 million tons of wheat. At the same time, according to European traders, the Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP), has issued an international tender to purchase and import 110,000 metric tons of wheat.

The presence of ‘trawler mafia’ in Gwadar robbing the local fishermen in Makran of their livelihood is being raised, as well. Chairman Hidayatur Rehman Baloch, Haq Do Tehreek (HDT) has pointed out human rights abuses faced by the Tehreek in advocating for their rights; in spite of promises by the previous government, workers and leaders holding protests have been tortured and arrested.

Apart from the fisher folk facing scarce livelihood there is also ongoing marine ecological crisis which also fails to get government attention.

According to a World Bank study in Pakistan, there was a link between malnutrition and poor quality of water which inhibited the absorption of healthy minerals in the body. According to Dr Alvi, the President of Pakistan, climate and water emergency had exposed the underlying dysfunctions in global, national, and local economies, that failed to produce economic, environmental, and social justice for people. He proposed developing platforms with the involvement of the communities to encourage them to follow preparedness, and resilience initiatives on water conservation

Climate change and rising global temperatures have affected marine ecosystems, as well as fresh water upstream of the Indus River delta. A result has been a decline in fish catch, impacting fisherfolk’s income. The Ministry of Food Security, Government of Pakistan through its Fisheries Development Board will develop a digital link through a website to bring together various stakeholders (farmers, auctioneers, whole-sellers, processors and retailers); the website will be providing fish farmers information on market price as well as demand for fish in in national local markets. Public and private sectors will be supported to further fish production, especially in in Gilgit Baltistan, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Khyber Pakhtunkha, shortly. One does wonder though, can the vast bulk of fisherfolk engage in such a digital platform?

Pakistan and China are emphasizing controlling livestock diseases, so as to enhance the growth potential in order to increase per animal production and solve livestock health issues. The federal government has provided PKR 36.6 million, Export Development Fund to build a ‘center of excellence’ at an estimated cost of Rs200 million to protect the Kinnow crop against different diseases.

One has to ask, are these measures for the majority who comprise of small and landless farmers, fisherfolk, or is for the rich industrial sector, and the traders?

Pakistan remains a highly indebted country. The past months have shown Pakistan to be near bankruptcy and default. Almost four months down the road things remain on shaky footings. Based on AidData, US international development research institution, Pakistan is the third biggest recipient of Chinese development finance worldwide; only two per cent of China’s portfolio in Pakistan between 2000 and 2021 consisted of grants while the rest was in the form of loans. 2017 onwards, Chinese finance has been mostly for rescue loans rather than developmental projects.

Saudi Arabia has rolled over the $3 billion deposit facility for another year to support State Bank of Pakistan’s foreign exchange reserves which may fall to below $4 billion in case the amount is withdrawn.

Pakistan’s development policy has included attracting international investment. The Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) has been playing a key role in Pakistan and Kuwait venturing into seven Memorandum of Understandings for investments amounting to $10 billion, in various fields such as mining, food security and environment. Similarly, under the SIFC, leaders of UAE and Pakistan, witnessed by the Chief of Army Staff, have also signed MoUs worth billions of dollars to boost economic and strategic cooperation between the two countries.

It is expected that there will be no roadblocks to the IMF’s release of about $710 million second tranche of $3 billion Standby Arrangement (SBA), most probably to be released in December. However, the Fund, and the World Bank have raised concerns over SIFC, advising against creation of a group of preferred investors.

At the same time, industry leaders in the country want the government to seek other sources of cheaper external financing; the current business environment is difficult due to the high electricity, gas and petroleum prices.

The thrust of neoliberalism continues to be trade and investment, along with privatization. Privatization of PIA, and outsourcing of airport operations are still on the books. Climate crisis continues to be a major disruptive force in economic development especially agriculture. Global warming is ever present, to play havoc with agriculture production as well as communities. For instance, Himalayan glaciers are supposed to lose up to 75 percent of their ice by the century’s end, according to the International Centre for Integrated Mountain. Avalanches, and lake bursts are a feature of Northern areas of Pakistan.

An Islamabad-based climate change expert has pointed to the use of fossil fuels in energy, transport, industries and agriculture for the emission of greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide and methane), which are the main reason for escalating global temperatures. As has been iterated numerous times, Pakistan’s global carbon emissions are less than one percent.

According to the caretaker Finance Minister Dr. Shamshad Akhtar, Pakistan is facing a trade-off between raising climate finance and development finance, as seeking money for climate finance negatively impacts development finance. The country needs an estimated investment of $340 billion to address climate and development challenges between 2023 and 2030.

Given the continued price escalation in essential goods and services, especially food, energy and transport, and lack of decent livelihood, there have been many protests happening across the country. While Metrobus security staff have been protesting as they had not been paid their salaries for three months, Karachi University, and Karakoram University students have been agitating against tuition fee hike. In Punjab University, students were marching for revival of student unions in educational institutions across the country.

The brutal war by the Zionist State of Israel continues and people across Pakistan, as well as Azad Jammu and Kashmir, have been standing in solidarity with Palestinians across the country. In particular, the presence of schoolchildren in street marches is noteworthy given the US-led Zionist aggression in Palestine has been especially targeting children.

A politician, Mr. Altaf Shakoor of, Pakistan Democratic Party, has asked the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) to focus on the issue of saline water irrigation in Thar and other desert areas where salt water lakes are present and can turn our deserts into grain baskets. According to him, many countries in the world successfully use saline water to grow crops with salt-tolerant seed varieties; Pakistan’s wheat research institute had also produced salt-tolerant wheat seed but has not been pursued further.

The caretaker government in Sindh has directed the provincial Forest and Wildlife Departments to start GIS (Geographic Information System) mapping of Kirthar National Park land, cancel illegal allotments and retrieve illegally occupied forest land. According to the Secretary of Forest and Wildlife Department, Najam Shah, the province had 3.4 million acres of forest land. Out of 232,205.7 acres of encroached forest land, 191,175.2 acres have been retrieved, with 41,030.5 acres were still encroached. In addition, 34,713.05 acres of forest land were illegally allotted, of which 21,274.56 acres have been cancelled.

Based on a land record digitization project, the Sindh government has initiated the digitization of land records of the entire province. Sindh Government has set a target of online facilitation and mobile application for the improvement of revenue records and getting information online. According to the Minister of Revenue, Industries & Commerce Mohammad Younus Dagha, about 580 officials from provincial finance and revenue departments have been transferred during the current caretaker government to ensure transparency within the system.

According to reports, Pakistan’s fundamental concern is only management, not resources. There is immense scope for value addition in the fields of human resource, agriculture and mining. These three sectors, if properly utilized and managed at least for 10 years, will have the potential to steer the country out of the economic quagmire.

Land ownership remains a critical aspect of agrarian society; six people were killed and five wounded in a fierce gun battle between armed men of two rival groups of Kalhoro and Junejo clans in Shikarpur district. Since the start of the dispute over a piece of agricultural land, more than 40 persons have lost their lives in clashes between the two groups.

Neoliberalism at Play!

On the behest of the World Bank, the caretaker government is considering amendments to taxation regime for retail, agriculture and real estate sectors. Imposition of wealth tax on moveable assets is also being proposed, which would allow generation of additional revenue up to four per cent of GDP (approximately PKR4 trillion) in the short term.

According to a senior economist Tobias Haque, real estate and agriculture should yield a revenue of 2 percent and 1 percent, respectively, of the GDP which would be equivalent to about PKR 2.1 trillion and PKR 1 trillion, respectively, according to official GDP size. This should be done immediately to “reduce or refine the current 12.5-acre tax exemption threshold to bring more agriculture land into the tax net,” and ensure appropriate categorization of land on the basis of size, location, irrigation status and area-based productivity aspects into tax rates. Pakistan’s total revenue collection averaged 12.8 percent of GDP in the past decade, is substantially lower than the South Asian average of 19.2 percent.

The Focus on Agrochemical Agriculture and Genetically Modified Seeds

Under the caretaker government, the Ministry of Planning and Development has put agriculture development projects at top priority; it has allocated billions of rupees under the Public Sector Development Program (PSDP) 2023-24, as they are deemed to have a ‘huge potential’. In this context, the agriculture sector is a top priority for the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC), as well.

The Planning Commission has decided to focus their energies on cage culture cluster development project; commercialization of potato tissue culture technology; establishment of consumer-sourcing seed authenticity system and strengthening of laboratories of Federal Seed Certification and Research and Development, among others. Besides, the Prime Minister’s Initiatives for Green Revolution project worth PKR 5000 million is also a landmark project initiated to address key constraints to productivity of agriculture.

It is felt that Pakistan’s food product exports face a hurdle based on international standards; in this context projects are being initiated to address issues faced in sector for fruits and vegetables. The aim is to reduce on-field and post-harvest losses of selected fruits and vegetables, and strengthen their value chains based on using value-adding technologies through public-private partnerships.

The Ministry of Industries and Production presented strategies to fulfil urea requirements for the 2023-24 Rabi season; the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) has sanctioned the immediate import of 200,000 tons of urea fertilizer. The committee also mandated a continuous gas supply for the fertilizer industry.

In addition, the Variety Evaluation Committee of Pakistan Agricultural Research Council (PARC) has recommended 10 new high yielding genotypes of oilseed crops and two of sugarcane for commercial cultivation in the country. At present, there is a large gap of 66 percent between supply and demand of certified seeds in the country. In addition, there is a huge burden on foreign currency, as Pakistan imported edible oil, mostly palm oil, worth US$4.5 billion in 2022.

As has been done in the previous years,  Punjab government has decided to promote oil seed cultivation in the province by offering subsidy to farmers in a bid to cut the country’s edible oil imports bill, and improve their income by encouraging cultivation of non-conventional crops; the provincial agriculture department will offer PKR 5,000 per acre subsidy for a total 100,000 acres to be brought under imported canola hybrid variety cultivation in the Rabi season, sowing for which will begin within days. A farmer may claim the subsidy for a maximum of five acres.

A meeting at the Ministry of National Food Security and Research has focused on the seed sector. Consultations were on streamlining the seed sector by using advanced genomic technologies as well as of IT systems for transparency. The presence of International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) is evidence that international actors, lodged in the United States (US) are also intervening in the seed policy setting arena. The country head of IFPRI, Pakistan, presented salient features of a report titled, ‘National Seed Sector: Prospects and Challenges.’ The report points out that the national breeders` intellectual property rights are being pirated. The meeting also discussed the issues related to biotech seeds and resolved to settle this in compliance with national and international rules.

According to James McNee, First Secretary, Canadian Embassy in Pakistan, Canada has been exporting grains, canola, and other agricultural products to Pakistan. But for him a handicap is the need for modifying legislation on GMOs to transform its existing agricultural production. He pointed out that grain institutes in Canada and Punjab province have joined hands to further study the GMOs that are being raised in Canada for their suitability to the soil of this region.

Genetically modified seeds, in the context of poultry feed is also being pushed. Increased retail chicken prices are being attributed to the ban on the import of soybean a key ingredient of poultry feed. Last year, there had been a ban imposed on GM soyabean mainly produced by United States, Brazil and Argentina, a key content of the poultry seed. According to Mr. Tariq Cheema, formerly federal minister for national food security and research, Shehbaz Sharif government, “the poultry industry is acting like a `mafia` to force the authorities to allow the use of a “known carcinogenic ingredient. They`re playing with the lives of people. GM soybean causes cancer.”

Apart from promoting hybrid and GM seeds, neoliberal policies based on market digitalization are also being promoted for agricultural marketing. The Market Committees Management Information System was officially launched in Lahore. Caretaker Agriculture Minister SM Tanvir launched the system; the digitalization of this system would improve tax collection processes & maintain accurate records of market activities while reducing instances of black marketing. The digitalization process is already in process through the use of Kisan Card; farmers that register themselves are able to ‘benefit’ from various government schemes like subsidies, loans, insurance among other.

In addition, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is launching a new project to promote modern trends and mechanization in agriculture in various member countries including Pakistan. In addition, the Sindh Water and Agriculture Transformation (SWAT) project of the World Bank is already ongoing; the project is meant to increase agricultural productivity by introducing modern techniques.

 A focus on the fisheries industry is also quite clear. According to an expert on fisheries sector of KP, GB and AJ&K, Omar Hayat Khan, the abundance of suitable water in quality and quantity in the shape of springs, streams, rivers and lakes provides opportunity for production of trout fish in millions of metric tons per annum, as well yield job creation. However, it needs translation into a formal ‘billion-dollar industry.’

Similarly, an expected US delegation to review the installation of turtle excluder devices (TEDs) in shrimp-catching nets has led to various stakeholders (fisheries departments, and others) to address this issue that has been present for many years. Pakistan’s shrimp exports to the US has been banned since 2017 because fishermen were not using the TED in their nets, endangering turtles. It is speculated that Pakistan has missed out $150 million in annual exports to the US.

While pushing for trade liberalization at home, similar trends are also seen for the export sector; the Pakistan’s Ambassador in China, Moinul Haque inaugurated the Pakistan National Pavilion at the Sichuan Agriculture Expo in Chengdu, where numerous Pakistani companies were promoting country’s agricultural products.

UNICEF has reported, more than 1.5 million children require lifesaving nutrition interventions. In Pakistan, the 2022 floods inflicted vast damage to the infrastructure, including 30,000 schools, 2,000 health facilities, and 4,300 water systems making access to safe drinking water and sanitation low. Further, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) about 2.14 million children are suffering acute malnutrition in various parts of Pakistan. Malnutrition has been attributed to number of issues including inadequate food quality and quantity, heightened food insecurity, insufficient sanitation coverage, elevated rates of diarrhea, acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and fever, as well as suboptimal health-seeking behavior. In response, projects co-funded by the European Union (EU), as well as International Rescue Committee (IRC), Medical Emergency Resilience Foundation (MERF) and others is providing therapeutic food and other services in various areas of the country.

Hunger and malnutrition as well as climate change has been used to promote not only biofortified therapeutic foods in the country but also for crop biofortification. It is being said that climate change-related unexpected temperature variability and extreme weather events lower agricultural yields and in reduction of nutritional value of staple crops in Pakistan; the panacea is switching to biofortified crops to deal with growing malnutrition in the country. Farmers, are being ‘convinced’ to switch to biofortified crops such as zinc wheat, which are more nutritious having adequate amounts of Zinc, Iron and other micronutrients. In this policy option, there is no mention of the added burden to Pakistan’s ‘starved foreign reserves.’

It is interesting that there is news about a survey on milk quality and safety conducted by the University of Veterinary and Animal Sciences (UVAS) informs that 54 percent of fresh milk samples were unsuitable for human consumption, and 92 percent did not comply with quality and safety standards. Institutions that support neoliberalism, hold a position where fresh milk should be corporate-controlled; issues of safety and hygiene are being propagated as a shield for transferring the dairy market from small and landless farmers to global dairy corporations. The basic neoliberal law that is being used to push this framework is lodged in the WTO agreements of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) mechanisms and Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT), and of course indirectly Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPs) agreement.

It is worth noting that Nestlé Pakistan recorded revenue of PKR 151,153 million for the third quarter of 2023, an increase of 24.9 percent as compared to the same period last year. According to Nestle, this growth is based on the wide spectrum of their products as well as ‘demand generating activities’ of the corporation as well as emphasis on localization of raw and packaging material has led to an improvement in operating profit. It’s worth reminding our readers that Nestle products include dairy products, juices and water: a majority based on local agriculture production. How many of these billions of rupees in profits actually benefit the real producers and how much is taken out of the country?

State’s Agriculture Growth Projections, and Contestants

There are predictions that the country will attain its agricultural growth target of 3.5 percent for 2023-24; the agriculture sector contributes 22.9 percent to GDP and 37.4 percent in employment generation, ensures food security and provides raw material to the industrial sector. Official projections for increase in cotton production was 126.6 percent over last year; rice to show an increase of 12.7 percent and 18 percent in area and production, respectively, over last year. For livestock, the share in agriculture sector is likely to increase by 64 percent.

Sindh Chamber of Agriculture (SCA) has raised concerns with respect to ‘cartelization’ of Sindh rice millers, who are not paying a ‘just price to paddy growers for their produce’ who based on moisture presence in paddy crops are already being paid less than offered rates. According to the SCA senior vice president Nabi Bux Sathio, last year Pakistan had exported 3.8 million tons of rice and earned $2.28 billion in foreign exchange; exporters fetched $600 per ton of coarse variety rice at the highest possible rate at the end of the export season. Out of these 3.8 million tons, 2.5 million tons were a coarse variety of rice to which Sindh contributed about 85 percent share. Sindh Abadgar Ittehad (SAI) has also pointed to ‘cartelization’ of Sindh rice millers and has appealed to the caretaker prime minister to intervene; the rice millers had offered PKR 4,500 per 40kg to farmers before harvesting but later “. . . due to the cartelization of millers and a nexus between them and rice exporters, the rate of paddy plummeted to PKR 3,200 to PKR 3,000 per 40kg”.

SAI has rejected the idea of corporate farming, called for fixing sugarcane rate at PKR 600 per 40kg. The government was planning corporate farming and had initiated project in the Cholistan area of Punjab where vast lands were given to another country while machinery was to be provided by China.

The Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) has fixed the wheat production target at 32.12 million tons for rabi season 2023-24, an increase of 12.20 per cent over last year’s 28.2m tons. The production target would be achieved from 8.9 million hectares.

However, agriculture experts have called for increasing per acre yield productivity, given the ambitious wheat production target of over 33 million tons expected for the 2023-24 season. The emphasis seems to be on vertical growth by enhancing per acre yield.

October is the month for the International Day of Rural Women, as well as the World Food Day. Therefore, this month is marked by many peasant rights activities and actions. According to the Hari Welfare Association (HWA), it is deeply concerned by the failure of federal and provincial governments to safeguard the rights of rural women in Pakistan.  The Sindh Women Agriculture Workers Act (SWAWA) though passed in 2019, which categorically recognizes women agriculture workers, remains unimplemented in Sindh.

In rural Sindh, more than 70% of women are employed in agriculture, but often lack access to education through different structural barriers such as patriarchy and feudal tribal systems. Low literacy rate contribute to the heightened abuse and women rights violations, and suffer from poverty, malnutrition and hunger.

A report by HWA, “the State of Peasants’ Rights in Sindh in 2022” was launched at the HWA office, Nawab Shah. The report reviews the legislative, policy, and administrative frameworks in place and highlights the challenges faced by peasants and rural workers. And highlights the need for enforcement of laws such as the Sindh Tenancy Act 1950, the Sindh Tenancy Amendment Act 2013, the Sindh Bonded Labor (Abolition) System Act 2015, and the Sindh Industrial Relations Act 2013.

The World Food Day was commemorated as the ‘World Hunger Day’ by an alliance of small and landless farmers, Pakistan Kissan Mazdoor Tehreek (PKMT) in collaboration with the Asian Peasant Coalition, in Ghotki, Sindh. Recent reports by UNICEF and World Banks have stated that 333 million children (one in every six children) worldwide live in extreme poverty including 62 million children in South Asia. The World Food Program estimates that 345 million people worldwide suffer from severe hunger; these figures show the aptness of PKMT, and APC call which points out the true state of affairs. 

The Pakistan Bureau of Statistics has provided data according to which Pakistan’s trade deficit narrowed by 42.25 percent in the first quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year 2023-24; exports decreased by 3.78 percent to $6.899 billion in this period whereas, imports declined by 25.36 per cent to $12.188 billion during the first quarter of fiscal year 2023-24.

In the first quarter of the financial year of 2023-2024, exports of agriculture and food products from Pakistan increased by 37.4 percent as compared to the same period during 2022-2023. Major increases were in export of Sesame seed, meat, fruits and vegetables, fish and fish products.

Based on data from Pakistan Customs, the Afghan transit cargo flow of containers have shown a 39 percent increase in the past year. According to the commerce secretary, Afghan exports are approximately worth $1 billion, but imports had risen to $6 billion in FY23. With fears of illegal entry of goods in Pakistan through this transit trade, a ten percent processing fee has been levied on items imported under the Afghan Transit Trade Agreement.

Ambassador of Turkiye would like to see a bilateral trade volume between Pakistan and Turkiye to reach USD 20-25 billion, and the Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industries (FPCCI) have suggested exploring new avenues to export to Turkiye, which would also include industrial collaborations and transfer of technology. The Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan has suggested that the long Pakistan-Iran border could be turned into an economic border, while both countries could trade in Chinese Yuan. Pakistan could export live animals, meat, wheat and rice while Pakistan could import from Iran fuel, building materials and food products. According to the Iranian Ambassador, CPEC was an important project for both countries, and Iran could provide energy to Pakistan for CPEC projects at economical terms.

The European Parliament has extended the current generalized system of preferences (GSP) for another four years until 2027 for developing countries, including Pak­istan, to enjoy duty-free or minimum duty on exports to the European market. However, according to analysts, the long-term future for exporting goods to the EU will be based on the type of electricity used for manufacturing. These measures are being taken under Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), a new set of trade rules for imposing taxes on imports from non-EU members. Starting now, businesses in EU have to provide information on ‘carbon emission-intensive’ aspects of imported products, and this could make Pakistani export products more expensive in the European markets.

Cnergyico, formerly known as Byco Petroleum Pakistan Limited (BPPL), has imported the country’s first private-sector shipment of Russian crude oil. Russia is offering discounted rates after its exports were banned in Europe.

Increase in gas tariff for the ongoing fiscal year have been approved by Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) of the Cabinet, along with import of 200,000 metric tons of urea for the Rabi season. Further, import of one million ton of milling wheat through Trading Corporation of Pakistan (TCP) has also been approved.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan, the federal government’s total debt (domestic and external) stocks reached PKR 64 trillion by August 2023, mainly due to exchange rate volatility

The economy continues to be based on foreign loans. According to the “World Bank Annual Report 2023: A New Era in Development,” in fiscal year 2023, Pakistan was International Development Association’s (IDA) top borrower, securing $2.3 billion in funding. The Economic Affairs Division (EAD) has reported that Pakistan`s foreign assistance inflows rose by about 58 per cent in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

The World Bank has projected positive growth return for Pakistan in fiscal year 2023-24, but at a rate of only 1.7 per cent, while the economy remains dependent on capital inflows to finance substantial fiscal and current account deficits. On the other hand, the IMF’s latest growth forecast is well above the recent forecasts from the World Bank and ADB.

While the flow of loans comes in freely, the conditionalities are also there. The care taker Privatization Minister Fawad Hassan has affirmed the government’s decision to divest major loss-making state-owned enterprises, so as to get rid of the drain on resources. He has held meetings with World Bank officials for divestment of PIA and other state-owned entities for optimizing the performance of ex-Wapda Discos, a process in which the World Bank has agreed to provide help. In addition, the caretaker government has decided to privatize Pakistan Steel Mills (PSM) on Government to Government (G2G) basis, as Privatization Commission has failed to finalize restructuring plan in eight years. The World Bank has critiqued this form of privatization, based on fears of litigation in divestments to foreign states under government-to-government contracts, and advised public offerings through stock exchanges followed by privatization under transparent oversight of the parliament. Quite interesting that the French Ambassador to Pakistan has expressed interest in gaining insights into Pakistan’s privatization strategy on which he was then briefed by the Privatization Minister, Mr. Fawad Hassan. It’s worth pointing out, that all this is happening under a caretaker government.

According to a preliminary research, global carbon dioxide emissions are expected to rise around one per cent to reach a new all-time high in 2023. Scientists say carbon pollution will need to be cut almost in half this decade to meet the world’s targets of limiting global warming and avoiding catastrophic climate impacts.

The ongoing climate crisis, which of course is based on the carbon emissions of industrialized rich countries, finds expression in the misery of the people in countries like Pakistan. According to the “World Bank Annual Report 2023: A New Era in Development,” South Asia is highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and natural disasters, and in the past 20 years, climate disasters have impacted 750 million people, which means more than 50 percent of the population. South Asia, which is one of the poorest regions in the world is suffering from intensifying heatwaves, cyclones, droughts and floods. The changing climate could sharply diminish living conditions for up to 800 million people.

According to the ‘State of Global Water Resources 2022 Report’ published by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), over 50 percent of the global catchment areas exp­erienced deviations from normal river discharge conditions in 2022. From 2000 to 2018, the total glacier mass balance decreased by more than four percent.

Climate change has wrecked the hydrological cycle which is a result; extreme weather events, such as droughts and extreme rainfall events are taking a heavy toll on lives and livelihoods. At the same time, high temperatures lead to melting snow, ice and glaciers that result in intense floods as we have seen in Pakistan numerous times.

According to a report by FAO, a staggering $3.8 trillion loss in crop and livestock production has been reported over the past 30 years due to disasters. This equals an average annual loss of $123 billion, or five per cent of global agricultural GDP.  Average losses over 30 years have increased across all the main agricultural product groups, with an average of 69 million tons of cereals, 40 million tons of fruits and vegetables and 16m tons of meat, dairy products and eggs lost annually due to extreme events; a $3.8 trillion loss in crop and livestock production has been reported over these three decades.

Numerous projects have been floated by neoliberal institutions, however there seems to be reliance on the private sector. The IMF has asked the private sector to ‘drastically’ increase its climate-related investments in the poor countries. Will these projects than like it has happened over many decades, result in flow of funds from poor countries to rich, through intellectual property rights on shared technologies and knowledge sharing?

According to an Oxfam International report, world’s poorest countries face budget cuts topping $220 billion over the coming five years due to a debt crisis that has pushed dozens to the brink of default.

The conditions imposed by IMF have been having a diabolical impact on the working class and peasantry in the country. Inflation in the first quarter (July to September) surged to 29.04 percent in FY24 from 25.11 percent over the corresponding period of last year. State Bank of Pakistan has projected 20-22 percent average inflation for FY24 from 29.2 percent in FY23. Wheat flour prices saw a staggering rise of 81.29 percent while rice prices experienced a rise of 64.71 percent. The ongoing economic crises have multiple impacts on the people. A truly tragic incidence was the killing of a person by three others, when he failed to return a loan of PKR 50,000.

As part of resisting the ongoing false solutions provided by industrialized countries for climate change, a Global People’s Caravan was organized from many countries including Pakistan. In Shikarpur, Sindh, PKMT held a People’s Caravan highlighting the plight of the peasantry, especially women in face of the ongoing climate as well economic crisis.

It was reported that “the caravans will build up to the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) of the UN Climate Change Conference happening in Dubai, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), from Nov 30 to Dec 12. Similar caravans or actions in various countries in Asia, Africa, Latin America and other regions are planned throughout October-November 2023. . . . They are holding to account imperialism – the global empire of the wealthiest countries’ finance oligarchs and their monopoly corporations.”

Other sectors of society, such as students of Sindh University held a rally against student fee increase, ban on student unions, and other issues. It was noted that in just a period of seven months, the university implemented fee hikes by 45 percent. Urban and rural communities in Karachi and Peshawar have been carrying out sit-ins against the long hours of power outage and other injustices related to energy supply.

In Tangwani town, Kandhkot-Kashmore, a large number of paddy growers, along with their children, took out a rally against rice millers and traders for refusing to offer more than 50 per cent of the agreed upon price of their crop without any valid reason. Similarly, rice farmers of Garhi Khairo, Jacobabad staged a protest sit-in against paddy price being offered to them by traders. According to them, the government of Sindh had fixed paddy price at PKR 4,500 per 40kg but the traders were only paying PKR 2200-2300 per 40kg.

Farmers associations in Balochistan also protested against WAPDA, due to long hours of unannounced power shortage which had resulted in destroying livelihood of farms, as destruction of agriculture produce has left them unable to repay loans taken from commercial banks. Other farmer movements have also protested demanding international financial institutions should write-off loans of countries like Pakistan, that also suffer from climate crisis. Similarly, the salaried class has also been protesting against the World Bank proposal of inflicting further taxes on this class.

A shutter down strike was carried out in Gwadar over shortage of drinking water. Please note, Balochistan home and tribal affairs department has banned the blocking of main avenues and highways in Red Zone across the province under Section 144 of the Criminal Procedure Code. In Khairpur, the Khairpur police registered an FIR against 16 reporters along with around 100 people, who were holding a protest in Hingorja against a lesser rate than the officially fixed price of cotton.

In Sukkur, irrigation department employees have been agitating with slogans ‘Eliminate corruption and save irrigation,’ so as to ‘cleanse the department of the menace that had hollowed out one of the oldest institutions of the province.’ In the geo-political arena, there have been many developments in this month which will change the course of human history in the context of understanding genuine democracy and human rights. October 7, 2023 will be remembered for years to come. After many decades of atrocities by Zionist Israel, the Palestinian Resistance hit back; this feat looms large over all nations, whether they have stood up against the US-backed Zionist entity of Israel, or those who have supported this fascist formation.